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"Some are weatherwise, some are
otherwise."
Ben Franklin
"Weather
forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the
state of the
atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to
predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the
nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting
quantitative
data about the current state of the atmosphere and using
scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the
atmosphere will evolve. Once an all-human endeavor based
mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather
conditions, and sky condition, weather forecasting now relies on
computer-based models that take many
atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick
the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which
involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model
performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the
massive computational power required to solve the equations that
describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial
conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes
mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current
time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use
of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and pick the most
likely outcome. There are a variety of end uses to weather forecasts.
Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to
protect life and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders
within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility
companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis,
people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day.
Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and
the wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan
activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them"Source:
Wikipedia
"Weather
forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the
state of the